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  • Originally posted by TDog View Post

    Winning a lot of one-run games isn't necessarily a function of luck. I wouldn't say the 95-loss 1968 White Sox were more unlucky than bad because they lost 44 one-run games. It wasn't a matter of being unlucky or without luck, however you want to phrase it, that they finished 36 games behind the Tigers. Run differential today means less than it did then because teams getting blown out today aren't doing as much to stop the bleeding, even running out position players more frequently to pitch the late innings. But it's always been true that good teams win close games. That's as true now as it ever was with the rise of the short closer, The Twins insist on running out an often-ineffective closer in close games, and it's not simply a matter of them being unlucky when they lose by one in their last at bats. Even if it's not a pitcher's fault, I wouldn't say that a team that gets two ground balls to infielders down to the opposition's last out with the bases loaded and makes two errors to score three runs is not "unlucky" even if the pitcher can be labeled as such.

    In general, teams that win a lot of high-scoring one-run games are more dependent on luck than teams that win a lot of low-scoring one-run games. But the reason that sports books do odds on baseball instead of run spreads ts baseball is a game where one team can clearly outplay another and deserve to win despite winning by just one run. Having the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning doesn't make your loss unlucky.
    Luck or no luck had nothing to do with the 1968 team losing 95 games because bottom line is they couldn't hit a lick, .228 team BA with 71 homers and 463 runs scored. 68 was a carry over from 1967 team which was also a horrible hitting team but the pitching was super outstanding and the best since I became a Sox fan in 1952 and they came so very close to bringing a World Series to Chicago.
    Now coming up to bat for the White Sox is the Mighty Mite, Nelson Fox.

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    • Originally posted by voodoochile View Post

      Baseball offensive failure is a built in function of the game. It's a feature not a bug. So it's not surprising when teams fail to score even a single run even with the bases loaded and less than two outs.
      If you ignore situational hitting as a concept, which is becoming increasingly fashionable.as teams reward players for metrics that don't coincide with winning baseball, it's more common to see teams fail to score with the bases loaded and nobody out. Winning teams are better at situational hitting, although rewarding players based on analysis that ignores situational hitting, the effect is less. But if you break down the number of runners placed on second at the start of extra innings who score compared to the numbers of number of runners who score in regulation after reaching second with none out, I'm pretty sure you'll see more scoring success in extra innings. I haven't done a breakdown, and don't have time to do one, but the game summaries I look at reflect as much. The shorter extra-inning games would indicate as much as well. When the game is on the line, more managers are focusing on getting runs home than considering individual plate appearances in a vacuum based on global percentages. Looking at strikeouts as any other kind of out or an out that avoids a double play is itself a concession of failure being built into the game.

      The Twins game I cited as not being an unlucky Twins loss, had the A's scoring three runs with two outs by hitting two routine grounders that should have ended the game. It wasn't an unlucky one-run loss for the Twins because the Twins made two egregious errors, either of which would have ended the game with a Twins win. Break down the percentages all you want on striking out as opposed to grounding out, but when you put balls into play, you expose some bad defense. I know the White Sox have scored runs on strikeouts this year. There was one strikeout that brought in two runs to tie the Angels the first weekend of the season, but putting the ball in play, regardless of the velocity or launch angle, gives you a better chance of getting on base than striking out.

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      • Even with situation hitting players are far more likely to fail than succeed. There is NO offensive system that will raise your success rate for scoring runs to over 50% in any given situation.
        Riding Shotgun on the Sox Bandwagon since before there was an Internet...



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        • Originally posted by voodoochile View Post
          Even with situation hitting players are far more likely to fail than succeed. There is NO offensive system that will raise your success rate for scoring runs to over 50% in any given situation.
          The applicable punch line here would be, "unless you're facing the White Sox bullpen." Painful humor with an unfortunate shred of truth notwithstanding ....

          Global percentages aren't really relevant because it takes the game out of context. You don't have to get a hit to score a runner from third with less than one out. You don't have to get a hit to move a runner from second with no outs to third with one out. And judging from what little baseball I've actually watched this year, hitting a ball softly that the pitcher has to filed off of the mound has an excellent chance of being offensively beneficial. Fighting for runs situationally,puts more pressure on the defense. Even bunting can open up big innings. Success in understanding how a pitcher is approaching you by reading the defensive shading if not the radical shift, factored in with reading the pitcher and pitch recognition can increase a hitter's chances against a pitcher. Winning close games is more than rolling the dice and getting the big hit. The 2000 White Sox season ended with Lou Piniella (he actually said this in an interview) knowing that Carlos Guillen only had to get down a fair bunt for the Mariners to advance to the ALCS. Along the same lines, A runner placed on second to begin an extra inning is going to be more likely to score than a leadoff double in regulation, even though that runner scoring in the bottom of the second might have won the game in regulation.

          Percentages are against the hitter. Hitting a round baseball with a round bat is the most difficult thing to do in sports, to paraphrase Ted Williams. At the same time, Jim Bouton wrote in Ball Four the second most difficult thing to do in sports is to stop good major league hitters from hitting. It's not about rolling dice. One-run games are not simply a matter of luck.

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          • Dodgers just announced Dustin May is having Tommy John surgery.

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            • Originally posted by MrX View Post
              Dodgers just announced Dustin May is having Tommy John surgery.
              Wasn't he slated to be one of their top guys for the future? Big blow for LA but they're still stacked.

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              • Originally posted by blurry View Post

                Wasn't he slated to be one of their top guys for the future? Big blow for LA but they're still stacked.
                Yep, they have depth everywhere including in the minor leagues.

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                • Originally posted by Lipman 1 View Post
                  Yep, they have depth everywhere including in the minor leagues.
                  Yes, the Dodgers for decades have had one of the most impressive operations in Latin America, they have hit on a bunch of draft picks, and they have developed a lot of both draftees and international prospects into good players.

                  Yes, all MLB clubs would aspire to have what the Dodgers have, including their own cable TV channel and being the top club in the #2 market (13.2 million in the metro area) in the US.

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                  • Originally posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post

                    Yes, the Dodgers for decades have had one of the most impressive operations in Latin America, they have hit on a bunch of draft picks, and they have developed a lot of both draftees and international prospects into good players.

                    Yes, all MLB clubs would aspire to have what the Dodgers have, including their own cable TV channel and being the top club in the #2 market (13.2 million in the metro area) in the US.
                    The Dodgers also have the will to do something many owners, including those in some of the biggest TV markets in the nation, won't do...spend $$$$$$$$$$.

                    If you are hinting about a certain franchise on the South Side last I looked they were in the nation's 3rd biggest market, basically have their own cable channel since the Cubs are no longer part of it baseball-wise in the summer months, had some of the lowest payrolls the previous three seasons in baseball because they were rebuilding...yet somehow have a lower payroll today than in 2011 when they were "going for it."

                    And perhaps this has changed but the majority of the greater Los Angeles area can't get the Dodgers pay service due to the ongoing dispute with (I think) Time-Warner. Perhaps that has been resolved but it was an on-going issue for years limiting their potential income from that source.

                    Frater I always go back to what my dad told me, "$$$ talks and BS walks."

                    Not denying in any way, shape or form the Dodgers have certain advantages but let's not be naïve and think the Sox don't have any either, especially compared to teams in their own division.

                    It's always amazed me how the Sox with their advantages haven't been able to dominate the division even for three or four years. Cleveland did in the 90's, Minnesota in the 00's, Detroit had their run in the late 00's...even little Kansas City somehow found a way to get to a couple of World Series. Kansas City.

                    The White Sox? Just mind-boggling. They've never made the playoffs in consecutive seasons...ever.

                    Last edited by Lipman 1; 05-04-2021, 01:53 PM.

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                    • Originally posted by Lipman 1 View Post

                      The Dodgers also have the will to do something many owners, including those in some of the biggest TV markets in the nation, won't do...spend $$$$$$$$$$.

                      If you are hinting about a certain franchise on the South Side last I looked they were in the nation's 3rd biggest market, basically have their own cable channel since the Cubs are no longer part of it baseball-wise in the summer months, had some of the lowest payrolls the previous three seasons in baseball because they were rebuilding...yet somehow have a lower payroll today than in 2011 when they were "going for it."

                      And perhaps this has changed but the majority of the greater Los Angeles area can't get the Dodgers pay service due to the ongoing dispute with (I think) Time-Warner. Perhaps that has been resolved but it was an on-going issue for years limiting their potential income from that source.

                      Frater I always go back to what my dad told me, "$$$ talks and BS walks."
                      Tell that to the Angels who freely spend money and haven't finished .500 or better since 2015 and haven't won a postseason game since 2009.

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                      • Lip, I have written elsewhere that I have many problems with Sox ownership, including and especially that JR won’t dip into his personal wealth to supplement Sox payroll.

                        But the lack of multiple major league outfielders on the Charlotte roster is not grounds to criticize the Sox.

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                        • Originally posted by TDog View Post

                          Tell that to the Angels who freely spend money and haven't finished .500 or better since 2015 and haven't won a postseason game since 2009.
                          At least they are trying T-Dog.

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                          • Originally posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
                            Lip, I have written elsewhere that I have many problems with Sox ownership, including and especially that JR won’t dip into his personal wealth to supplement Sox payroll.

                            But the lack of multiple major league outfielders on the Charlotte roster is not grounds to criticize the Sox.
                            The fact that they weren't as aggresive as they should have been coming off three seasons of very low payroll and having "financial flexibility" (Rick's term) is in my opinion. They could have done a LOT more in my opinion. It's water under the bridge now of course. Like Jim Margulis (sorry if that is the wrong spelling) has often written, the Sox talk about having "financial flexibility" but somehow never get around to spending it! 😀

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                            • So the Twinkies didn't go to Colome tonight to close the game up 3-1 in the 9th. They left Taylor Rogers in. Rogers promptly... blew the save and the Twinkies gave up 3 more in the 10th to lose to the Rangers 6-3. They are now 5 games behind the Sox and Royals.

                              The Twinkies are what?
                              Riding Shotgun on the Sox Bandwagon since before there was an Internet...



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                              • Originally posted by Lipman 1 View Post

                                At least they are trying T-Dog.
                                Are they? They're spending money. They spend enough money that every year people, how many depending on the competition but every year some expect them to win the AL West. They even have a lineup that includes a perennial MVP candidate, and pay him accordingly. Every offseason they don't do what their lack of ultimate success indicated they should do to improve the team even though they spend more money. Maybe this year will be different, but since the Sox left Anaheim, the Angels have been playing below .500.

                                I don't know how bad Upton's knee injury is tonight, and I don't know if the Angels will make a major acquisition if he's projected to be out for a couple of months. I'm not an Upton fan, but Angels only have three outfielders on their current roster and sent in a utility infielder who plays the outfield when Upton went down. They didn't make a move when Dexter Fowler went down, possibly for the season. I don't see Schebler on their bench. He had been in the lineup for Trout when Trout was hurt recently. Ohtani has played one outfield inning in American baseball, the last inning of a 16-2 loss, but there's no way he gets starts there. We'll see what the Angels do if Upton is hurt.

                                I know seeing things you would like to improve on the White Sox while not seeing money being spent to fix it can be frustrating. I'm not so sure the rebuild wasn't an excuse not to spend money and not to compete. But even the Dodgers and Padres, for all the hype over their head-to-head meetings, aren't doing as well as expected against the rest of MLB. Is not doing anything about it a matter of not panicking or cheaping out?

                                By the way, the 2015 Royals team that won the World Series had a smaller payroll than the division rival 86-loss White Sox, and hit just three more home runs than the White Sox, who finished last in the league. What distinguished that team, why they won the World Series, was that they were the only team in the majors to strike out less than 1,000 times and had a great bullpen. The Royals didn't spend money on OPS, didn't even have the highest-paid bullpen, but it wasn't about the payroll.
                                Last edited by TDog; 05-04-2021, 11:38 PM.

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