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MLB Spring Training thread (2021)

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Nellie Fox View Post
    Not being argumentative, just genuinely befuddled. Where does this come from? Who says 1 WAR is worth 8 mil? Based on what?
    FiveThirtyEight. Most sites use that standard, but it was they that calculated it.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by vegandork View Post

      FiveThirtyEight. Most sites use that standard, but it was they that calculated it.
      Okay. But that doesn't explain how they arrived at it. Hell, there's not even agreement on how to calculate WAR.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Nellie Fox View Post

        Okay. But that doesn't explain how they arrived at it. Hell, there's not even agreement on how to calculate WAR.
        1. Salaries are set by baseball, then value/WAR is set from there. That's my basic understanding of it.

        2. Of course there will be variance in WAR given how some places put more emphasis on different aspects of the calculations. Ultimately I think they're all fine as long as you aren't trying to compare Baseball Reference's WAR (bWAR) to Fangraphs's WAR (fWAR) since the formulas are a little different. But for the most part they all tell the same story (Mike Trout is the best).

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        • #19
          Originally posted by blurry View Post

          1. Salaries are set by baseball, then value/WAR is set from there. That's my basic understanding of it.

          2. Of course there will be variance in WAR given how some places put more emphasis on different aspects of the calculations. Ultimately I think they're all fine as long as you aren't trying to compare Baseball Reference's WAR (bWAR) to Fangraphs's WAR (fWAR) since the formulas are a little different. But for the most part they all tell the same story (Mike Trout is the best).
          Yes, it's basically a look at what the average cost of 1 WAR is on the free agent market. The variance of WAR isn't that significant between outlets, but generally this uses bWAR.

          Mike Trout was the best, but WAR is telling us that Tatis is better. Or at least has been as good as Trout so far.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Nellie Fox View Post

            Okay. But that doesn't explain how they arrived at it. Hell, there's not even agreement on how to calculate WAR.
            FiveThirtyEight is just observing that free agent salaries tend to equal roughly the player's expected annual WAR over the course of the deal times $8 million. Whether teams are actually thinking in terms of $8 million/WAR or not is obviously something we don't have data on, and it could all be a coincidence, but the correlation is there. Teams seem to be willing to pay roughly $8 million for 1 WAR.
            "Hope...may be indulged in by those who have abundant resources...but those who stake their all upon the venture see it in its true colors only after they are ruined."
            -- Thucydides

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            • #21
              https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/stat...88711429677060

              Scott Kazmir is making a comeback attempt. Last pitched in 2016.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by HomeFish View Post

                FiveThirtyEight is just observing that free agent salaries tend to equal roughly the player's expected annual WAR over the course of the deal times $8 million. Whether teams are actually thinking in terms of $8 million/WAR or not is obviously something we don't have data on, and it could all be a coincidence, but the correlation is there. Teams seem to be willing to pay roughly $8 million for 1 WAR.
                It should be reiterated that they're calculating what teams are getting, not what they're buying. It's based on how they perform within their contract, not on past value.

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                • #23
                  Big blow to the Twins, their top prospect Royce Lewis, who was going to challenge to make the opening day Roster and challenge for ROY, is out for the season. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...-torn-acl.html

                  ACL tears are especially tough for middle infielders to recover from.
                  Last edited by vegandork; 02-24-2021, 12:00 PM.

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                  • #24
                    Twins top prospect Royce Lewis is out for the season with an ACL tear. #5 SS prospect and #17 overall per mlbpipeline.

                    https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/stat...298462210?s=20

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                    • #25
                      This will put him, what, 2 years off a diamond. Can’t help but feel for guys like he and Burger. Tough road ahead.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by DeployEloy View Post
                        This will put him, what, 2 years off a diamond. Can’t help but feel for guys like he and Burger. Tough road ahead.
                        Never like to see this, but it REALLY hurts the Twins long term if he doesn't develop.

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                        • #27
                          Arrgh! That's horrible news about Royce Lewis. As Sox fans we seem to remember only those injuries which have derailed the careers of our prospects. But injuries happen to every team's prospects and it sucks when it happens.

                          2020 Sox Attendance Tracker: 0-0
                          All-time Sox Attendance Tracker: 286-247
                          Posts on old WSI: 7344

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
                            Twins top prospect Royce Lewis is out for the season with an ACL tear. #5 SS prospect and #17 overall per mlbpipeline.

                            https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/stat...298462210?s=20
                            Huge bummer for them. Even if it's a rival you don't want to see anyone go down. I like watching the exciting up and coming prospects make it to the bigs.

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                            • #29
                              https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statu...76767114444805

                              That was a wild ride.

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                              • #30
                                Didn't see this posted elsewhere, but Twins new starter JA Happ tested positive for coronavirus.

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