Managing the pitching staff

[voodoochile]

I think the Sox have to bump Cease and Dunning up to the Pirates series and let Lucas and Keuchel take the first two next weekend in Detroit. Yes that means Dunning is the starter in the opening game against the Twins and the yet to be named 5th starter goes game two but then you get Lucas and Keuchel to finish the series. the 3 against the Reds are C, D, 5th and then Lucas opens against Cleveland with Dallas second. Then if necessary Lucas and Keuchel can pitch the final two games of the season against the Cubs.

If you let the 5th starter start Wednesday then things get wonky unless they don't want to push Dunning real hard and intend to skip him, but if you want to maximize starts for our top two. you have to start Lucas next Friday in Detroit.

[A. Cavatica]

I was thinking the same thing.

[Mohoney]

Off/Cease/Dunning/Off/Giolito/Keuchel is the best way to recharge this bullpen for those 17 consecutive games to end the season.

[A. Cavatica]

Actually, the bullpen might be about to catch a break. Only 3 games in the next 5 days, against Harvey (who has been awful), Musgrove, and Brubaker.

The Sox should be able to put up a big number tomorrow. Keuchel needs to get through the KC lineup three times, and if we do in fact have a big lead, we can close it out with McRae, Flores and Burdi.

[Mohoney]

Actually, the bullpen might be about to catch a break. Only 3 games in the next 5 days, against Harvey (who has been awful), Musgrove, and Brubaker.

The Sox should be able to put up a big number tomorrow. Keuchel needs to get through the KC lineup three times, and if we do in fact have a big lead, we can close it out with McRae, Flores and Burdi.

It would be nice to go to some of those new guys.

[A. Cavatica]

Why does RR basically stick with three guys (Cordero, Marshall, Colome) when he has a lead? They’ve been really dependable this year, but I’ve been increasingly worried that he’ll burn them out.

It’s almost like RR is willing to sacrifice them because he knows he might not be around next year if the Sox tail off.

Voodoo, maybe you should change the thread title to Managing the Pitching Staff...

[Frater Perdurabo]

Why does RR basically stick with three guys (Cordero, Marshall, Colome) when he has a lead? They’ve been really dependable this year, but I’ve been increasingly worried that he’ll burn them out.

That’s the downside of going 15-4 in the last 19 games.

[HomeFish]

Who are the real Burdi, Foster, and Detwiler? The guys who were lights out at the start of the season, or the guys who seem to automatically give up runs now?

[Frater Perdurabo]

If you start Cease and Dunning in Pittsburgh, it does guarantee that Giolito and Keuchel each pitch in every remaining series against an important opponent (both would miss the Cincinnati series). It also means you only need a #5 starter three times. I think this is the optimal rotation setup to put us in position to win the division.

The downside is that if the Sox go into the Cubs series needing to win games 2 and 3, both Giolito (game 2) and Keuchel (game 3) have to start and go deep, which makes their availability for the best-of-three first round series dicey unless they go on short rest:

M7 OFF
T8 @PIT Cease
W9 @PIT Dunning
R10 OFF
F11 DET Giolito
S12 DET Keuchel
S13 DET Cease
M14 MIN Dunning
T15 MIN ?
W16 MIN Giolito
R17 MIN Keuchel
F18 @CIN Cease
S19 @CIN Dunning
S20 @CIN ?
M21 @CLE Giolito
T22 @CLE Keuchel
W23 @CLE Cease
R24 @CLE Dunning
F25 CUBS ?
S26 CUBS Giolito
S27 CUBS Keuchel
M28 END OF REGULAR SEASON / OFF
T29: Game 1?
W30: Game 1/2
R1: Game 2/3
F2: Game 3?

Let’s hope the Sox hitting and defense make it a moot point, and that instead we’ll have clinched the division on or before Friday, 9/25, so that we can save Giolito and Keuchel for the playoffs.

[A. Cavatica]

What if you start #5 (I assume Gonzalez, but it could be Rodon) on Sept 13 against Detroit, Sept 18 against Cincy, Sept 23 against Cleveland?

[ChiTownTrojan]

If you start Cease and Dunning in Pittsburgh, it does guarantee that Giolito and Keuchel each pitch in every remaining series against an important opponent (both would miss the Cincinnati series). It also means you only need a #5 starter three times. I think this is the optimal rotation setup to put us in position to win the division.

The downside is that if the Sox go into the Cubs series needing to win games 2 and 3, both Giolito (game 2) and Keuchel (game 3) have to start and go deep, which makes their availability for the best-of-three first round series dicey unless they go on short rest:

M7 OFF
T8 @PIT Cease
W9 @PIT Dunning
R10 OFF
F11 DET Giolito
S12 DET Keuchel
S13 DET Cease
M14 MIN Dunning
T15 MIN ?
W16 MIN Giolito
R17 MIN Keuchel
F18 @CIN Cease
S19 @CIN Dunning
S20 @CIN ?
M21 @CLE Giolito
T22 @CLE Keuchel
W23 @CLE Cease
R24 @CLE Dunning
F25 CUBS ?
S26 CUBS Giolito
S27 CUBS Keuchel
M28 END OF REGULAR SEASON / OFF
T29: Game 1?
W30: Game 1/2
R1: Game 2/3
F2: Game 3?

Let’s hope the Sox hitting and defense make it a moot point, and that instead we’ll have clinched the division on or before Friday, 9/25, so that we can save Giolito and Keuchel for the playoffs.

Thanks Frater for mapping this out. I would think even if the division is up for grabs, you would still want Giolito/Keuchel to pitch games 1 and 2 of a playoff series (I’m assuming we have a playoff spot locked up by then).

A lot depends on the progress of Rodon and Gonzalez. Plan A for the 5th spot was probably for Rodon to be the 5th starter, but who knows know with his latest setback. Has anyone heard anything about Gonzalez?

Flores is really the only other option on the 40-man, right? But with Fry out he’s now the second lefty out of the pen.

[Chez]

It all starts and ends with starting pitching. The Sox rotation currently only has two starters who regularly get the game to the seventh inning. Cease rarely makes it out of the 6th and Dunning has yet to get out of the 5th. We're going to need to use a 5th starter soon and it's unlikely whomever fills that role will go more than four innings. All of this places high stress on the bullpen and while guys like Heuer and Foster have far exceeded most people's expectations, the Sox are going to need help from guys who have underperformed so far. Maybe its Cishek, maybe Burdi gets back on track, maybe Bummer (who hasn't under performed) can return for the last week of the season, maybe Lopez can return and pitch well for an inning per outing. But the best solution would be if Cease and Dunning can keep their pitch counts down so that they can pitch one more inning per start to shorten the bullpen use.

[guillensdisciple]

I don't want to forecast that far ahead, but shouldn't we align our rotation to ensure Keuchel or Giolito get the start in game 1 of our playoff series? Unless we get a good amount of time between the end of the season and the playoffs, I think that's what we need to shoot for.

[Mohoney]

I don't want to forecast that far ahead, but shouldn't we align our rotation to ensure Keuchel or Giolito get the start in game 1 of our playoff series? Unless we get a good amount of time between the end of the season and the playoffs, I think that's what we need to shoot for.

Aligning that far out would be tremendously difficult. With double-headers all over the place and no days off after Thursday, anything long-term is just a crap-shoot.

[guillensdisciple]

Aligning that far out would be tremendously difficult. With double-headers all over the place and no days off after Thursday, anything long-term is just a crap-shoot.

Fair enough, I just don't want to be saddled with Dylan's mirage of an ERA in game one or two of a 3 game playoff series.