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PECOTA projections puts White Sox in 3rd place

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  • #31
    It's easy to nitpick a few things in the PECOTA projections that seem off. PECOTA has Vaughn as a negative WAR player, i.e. worse than replacement level. PECOTA has Tim Anderson regressing HARD. And PECOTA has Moncada not recovering from Coronavirus at all. You could quibble with all of these.

    But fundamentally, it is hard to deny the truth that the White Sox had the opportunity to make their ballclub much better on the free agent market, and decided not to do it. Now, they are at the mercy of variation and hoping that their best case scenario happens while worst case scenarios happen to Minnesota and Cleveland.
    "Hope...may be indulged in by those who have abundant resources...but those who stake their all upon the venture see it in its true colors only after they are ruined."
    -- Thucydides

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    • #32
      Originally posted by voodoochile View Post

      Best statistical guess based on current information is something that is done a lot. Baseball has too many variables to really accurately predict team/league wide trends from current rosters, but it's fun for discussion.
      Talking baseball can be very fun. But there is a big difference between Santiago talking baseball in Hemingway's The Old Man and the Sea and PECOTA talking baseball. Despite the novella's tragic nature, its baseball talk falls on the fun side. PECOTA is on the smug and irritating side that even argues it is right when it is ultimately wrong.

      Sadly, there are more high school and college papers being written about the latter these days than the former and it's contributing to fewer people finding fun in the game.

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      • #33
        I would think the people that constantly throw players statistical analytics in a discussion about a players worth would have the same confidence in this prediction.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by TDog View Post

          Talking baseball can be very fun. But there is a big difference between Santiago talking baseball in Hemingway's The Old Man and the Sea and PECOTA talking baseball. Despite the novella's tragic nature, its baseball talk falls on the fun side. PECOTA is on the smug and irritating side that even argues it is right when it is ultimately wrong.

          Sadly, there are more high school and college papers being written about the latter these days than the former and it's contributing to fewer people finding fun in the game.
          Different strokes for different folks. Not everyone thinks of Baseball as a trip down nostalgia lane. Some just like the sport and rooting for the laundry.
          Riding Shotgun on the Sox Bandwagon since before there was an Internet...



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          • #35
            Originally posted by HomeFish View Post
            It's easy to nitpick a few things in the PECOTA projections that seem off. PECOTA has Vaughn as a negative WAR player, i.e. worse than replacement level. PECOTA has Tim Anderson regressing HARD. And PECOTA has Moncada not recovering from Coronavirus at all. You could quibble with all of these.

            But fundamentally, it is hard to deny the truth that the White Sox had the opportunity to make their ballclub much better on the free agent market, and decided not to do it. Now, they are at the mercy of variation and hoping that their best case scenario happens while worst case scenarios happen to Minnesota and Cleveland.
            That doesn’t need to happen for the Sox to win the division. If every team in the division plays its B game, I think the Sox win the division. If every team plays its C- game, I think the Sox win the division.
            (Formerly asindc.)

            "I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country." Jim Caple, ESPN (January 12, 2011)

            "We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the (bleeding) obvious is the first duty of intelligent men." — George Orwell

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            • #36
              Originally posted by voodoochile View Post

              Different strokes for different folks. Not everyone thinks of Baseball as a trip down nostalgia lane. Some just like the sport and rooting for the laundry.
              It isn't about nostalgia. The essence, the spirit of PECOTA is the argument that the 2005 White Sox weren't a championship-caliber team. Knowing otherwise has more to do with liking the sport, certainly respecting it more than PECOTA does, not about taking a fanciful stroll down nostalgia lane.

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              • #37
                It's funny, we talk absolute bull**** for months on end, but projections are pointless? Everything we do here is equally pointless. If you need it to have a point, the only thread would be the post game.

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by TDog View Post

                  It isn't about nostalgia. The essence, the spirit of PECOTA is the argument that the 2005 White Sox weren't a championship-caliber team. Knowing otherwise has more to do with liking the sport, certainly respecting it more than PECOTA does, not about taking a fanciful stroll down nostalgia lane.
                  I don't think PECOTA would argue that the 2005 White Sox weren't a championship-caliber team. They would argue that going into the season, they did not look like a championship-caliber team. I would agree with that. There were a lot of performances on the 2005 White Sox that weren't exactly projectable. That doesn't mean they were "lucky," just that a lot of their players outperformed what they had done in the past.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post

                    I don't think PECOTA would argue that the 2005 White Sox weren't a championship-caliber team. They would argue that going into the season, they did not look like a championship-caliber team. I would agree with that. There were a lot of performances on the 2005 White Sox that weren't exactly projectable. That doesn't mean they were "lucky," just that a lot of their players outperformed what they had done in the past.
                    White Sox fans who side with the PECOTA cult won't admit it, but it does argue the White Sox weren't a championship-caliber team. It's part of the reason the 200t White Sox are so easily ignored when the subject of World Series champions come up, such slights being memorialized in WSI threads over the years. They won't even admit they were wrong.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by TDog View Post
                      White Sox fans who side with the PECOTA cult won't admit it, but it does argue the White Sox weren't a championship-caliber team. It's part of the reason the 200t White Sox are so easily ignored when the subject of World Series champions come up, such slights being memorialized in WSI threads over the years. They won't even admit they were wrong.
                      You're fighting a straw man here. Obviously the 2005 White Sox put in a historic performance with a wire-to-wire division lead, 4 consecutive complete games in the NLCS, an 11-1 run in the postseason, a World Series sweep, etc. However, to get there they needed a number of amazing performances from players who had never played like that before. Jon Garland, Joe Crede, Jose Contreras, no reasonable person would have predicted in March of 2005 that those three guys would play the way they did. No reasonable algorithm would have either.

                      Sometimes, a guy like Joe Crede puts up a 2005-like season. Sometimes, a guy like Jose Contreras turns it around and has a dominant half-season. Sometimes a guy like Jon Garland lives up to his potential after multiple disappointing season. But these are sometimes events, and to have a lot of them happen in the same year is even more of a sometimes event.

                      PECOTA isn't an artificial intelligence, it's just a computer following instructions that a human programmed it to follow. The low PECOTA score on the Sox is just a reflection of the fact that right now, they need to run into a bit of luck to win. A human scout would really tell you the same thing.
                      "Hope...may be indulged in by those who have abundant resources...but those who stake their all upon the venture see it in its true colors only after they are ruined."
                      -- Thucydides

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post

                        I don't think PECOTA would argue that the 2005 White Sox weren't a championship-caliber team. They would argue that going into the season, they did not look like a championship-caliber team. I would agree with that. There were a lot of performances on the 2005 White Sox that weren't exactly projectable. That doesn't mean they were "lucky," just that a lot of their players outperformed what they had done in the past.
                        The people who run PECOTA even say exactly this. Teams and players outperform (and also underperform) projections all the time.

                        Personally I think this team finishes 1st or 2nd in the AL central if no major injuries happen. I've been vocal about what I perceive to be gaping holes in the lineup and rotation, but there's young talent here that's ready to take the next step.

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                        • #42
                          I try not to get too worked up about projections (human or computer). The projections can be both interesting and frustrating and are fun to debate, but (as we all know), they still have to play the games!

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                          • #43
                            Here's the proof PECOTA's predictions were hacked by the writers at Saturday Night Live: despite losing 4 of 5 starters and having a couple of years in a row of a sub-par offense, the Cubs are expected to have a better season the Good Guys. LOL

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by HomeFish View Post

                              You're fighting a straw man here. Obviously the 2005 White Sox put in a historic performance with a wire-to-wire division lead, 4 consecutive complete games in the NLCS, an 11-1 run in the postseason, a World Series sweep, etc. However, to get there they needed a number of amazing performances from players who had never played like that before. Jon Garland, Joe Crede, Jose Contreras, no reasonable person would have predicted in March of 2005 that those three guys would play the way they did. No reasonable algorithm would have either.
                              Not to mention Konerko (his best year up to that point), Dye (career resurgence in his 30's), Iguchi (rookie), and especially having their top 4 starters make 30+ starts apiece (plus El Duque made 22). Maybe that sort of consistency from the rotation was more common then, but it seems insane now.

                              The low PECOTA score on the Sox is just a reflection of the fact that right now, they need to run into a bit of luck to win. A human scout would really tell you the same thing.
                              It's not necessarily luck - it can also be real improvement over what should be realistically expected from a player based on past performance. The biggest role that luck plays is regarding health.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
                                Not to mention Konerko (his best year up to that point)
                                That's right, it's easy to forget what a frustrating player Konerko was early in his career. I remember in 2003 when he played half the season like a scrub and half the season like an MVP candidate. The guy really aged like a fine wine.

                                "Hope...may be indulged in by those who have abundant resources...but those who stake their all upon the venture see it in its true colors only after they are ruined."
                                -- Thucydides

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