PECOTA projections puts White Sox in 3rd place

[notjimrose]

The latest PECOTA projections have the White Sox coming in 3rd, with 83.1 wins, finishing behind the Twins (90.6) and Cleveland (85.7).

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[MrX]

It doesn't think much of Moncada or Robert

Moncada: .243/.334/.426
Robert: .234/.298/.427

[ChiTownTrojan]

This was posted on Twitter in response to the PECOTA projections. A few years old, but an entertaining read!

https://www.southsidesox.com/2016/5/20/11671640/the-madness-of-paul-evan-a-kansas-city-royals-preview

[rdivaldi]

I think that's the best PECOTA projection the White Sox have had in a really long time....

[whitesox5187]

It doesn't think much of Moncada or Robert

Moncada: .243/.334/.426
Robert: .234/.298/.427

That's not too far off from where Robert finished last season. Moncada is more interesting because it was pretty clear what caused him to have such a down year, the thing that worries me the most is the unknown long-term impacts of COVID.

[DeployEloy]

That's not too far off from where Robert finished last season. Moncada is more interesting because it was pretty clear what caused him to have such a down year, the thing that worries me the most is the unknown long-term impacts of COVID.

The Moncada thing stood out to me too. There was too much surrounding Moncada last year to make a reliable projection on him from those numbers. I don't know how he will rebound off COVID struggles, but it has been a year of recovery. I think he has a much better shot at deviating from those projections than Robert does.
I do think Robert, by end of years time, will perform better than those numbers suggest as well. Still, I do think what they project him to be is completely understandable.

[voodoochile]

The Moncada thing stood out to me too. There was too much surrounding Moncada last year to make a reliable projection on him from those numbers. I don't know how he will rebound off COVID struggles, but it has been a year of recovery. I think he has a much better shot at deviating from those projections than Robert does.
I do think Robert, by end of years time, will perform better than those numbers suggest as well. Still, I do think what they project him to be is completely understandable.

There was a statement from him in the last few weeks that the lack of energy he was struggling with has cleared up.

[longtimefan]

PECOTA = Wild A** Guesses. Seriously, projections are great when your team is rated high but otherwise worthless. In reality, projections are not very accurate. Didn't PECOTA have the Cubs coming in last place in 2018 or 2019?

[Krs1]

Calculator baseball.

[voodoochile]

Calculator baseball.

Just for discussion.

[ChiTownTrojan]

You've got to keep in mind that these numbers are the median projections. They take into account all the things that can go right or wrong during the season. Right now the Sox have a lot of potential, but there is so much variability in a lot of the players. If things go right they're the best team in the division, but there are a lot of areas where something can go wrong, between injuries, young guys not taking the step forward that we are counting on, and the older veterans maintaining their level of play from last year. These projections reflect that uncertainty.

[DeployEloy]

You've got to keep in mind that these numbers are the median projections. They take into account all the things that can go right or wrong during the season. Right now the Sox have a lot of potential, but there is so much variability in a lot of the players. If things go right they're the best team in the division, but there are a lot of areas where something can go wrong, between injuries, young guys not taking the step forward that we are counting on, and the older veterans maintaining their level of play from last year. These projections reflect that uncertainty.

I mean that makes sense with this team being so incredibly young that there’s not a track record to go off of. The Cleveland projection baffles me quite a bit though.

[Krs1]

Just for discussion.

Hey, I made my contribution.

[Dumpjerry]

These are the same people who predicted the 2005 White Sox would finish AL Central in fourth place ahead of the Royals.

[blurry]

There was a statement from him in the last few weeks that the lack of energy he was struggling with has cleared up.

Yep, and he's been very open about it too. These days he's saying he feels really good and ready to go. I give the guy credit as he works his ass off from day to day.